Linking Hydrological Stress to Food Security Outcomes: Evaluating SDG 2 Performance in Arid African Regions

ABSTRACT Water scarcity is emerging as one of the most binding constraints to food system resilience in Africa, yet its pathways of influence on hunger outcomes remain insufficiently understood. This study examines the relationship between water stress, agricultural productivity, and SDG 2 performance across arid and semi‐arid African countries from 2000 to 2022 by integrating mediation analysis with advanced panel estimators. Using a carefully constructed macro‐panel dataset and employing fixed effects, Driscoll–Kraay, Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG), and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators, the study evaluates both the direct and indirect mechanisms through which water scarcity affects food security. The findings show that water stress exerts a consistently negative direct effect on SDG 2 outcomes, even after accounting for unobserved global shocks and cross‐country interdependencies. Agricultural productivity, proxied by cereal yield, emerges as a powerful mediating channel, with higher yields significantly improving food security, particularly in irrigation‐intensive economies such as Egypt, Sudan, and Morocco. However, this positive indirect pathway does not outweigh the broader detrimental effects of escalating water stress. Income levels and governance quality also play complementary roles in shaping countries' ability to manage water scarcity. Overall, the results provide robust empirical evidence that achieving SDG 2 in water‐stressed African regions requires transformative investments in water‐efficient agricultural technologies, irrigation systems, and institutional capacity. The study's insights offer a nuanced understanding of how hydrological constraints intersect with economic and governance structures, highlighting urgent policy priorities for building food‐secure and climate‐resilient African economies.