Long-term Trends and Demographic Risk Factors Attributed to Maternal Disorders Incidence in Five African Countries

Understanding the epidemiological characteristics of maternal disorders incidence (MDI) is highly important in designing policies to improve maternal health. This study investigates the long-term trends, and demographic risk factors associated with MDI. Data between 1990-2019 was obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases for the Republic of Cameroon (CAM), the Central African Republic (CAR), the Republic of Congo (COG), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the Republic of Chad (TCD). Joinpoint regression was employed to determine the different behaviors of the trends. The Age-Period-Cohort statistical model was applied in the determination of demographic risks associated with age, period, and cohort; and Holt’s double exponential model was utilized in the forecast of the trends. MDI declined mostly in COG by 1.7% (95% CI: 1.7; 1.8) between 1990 and 2019 based on the Joinpoint regression. In TCD, MDI rates remained steady in 2019 compared to 1990. In the five countries, MDI rates were most prevalent in women aged between 20-29. The age, period, and cohort rate ratios declined the most in CAM by nearly 5, 3, and 22 folds respectively. The age category between 15-34 years, the period before 2005, and the cohorts born before 1975 were at higher risks. Based on the forecasted trends, MDI rates were identified to be highly significant in the five countries, and TCD registered the highest rates. Declining maternal disorders incidence in low- and middle-income countries requires the adoption and employment of new health strategies and policies.