Longitudinal Trends and Programmatic Gaps in Selected Neglected Tropical Disease Control Indicators in Nigeria, 2005–2023: A WHO Global Health Observatory Secondary Data Analysis

Abstract Background Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) represent a persistent public health burden among Nigeria’s most vulnerable populations. Despite national commitments to the WHO NTD Roadmap 2021–2030, progress toward elimination targets remains uneven across disease categories and programme domains. Systematic longitudinal analysis of publicly available NTD indicators is essential to identify where programmatic gains are being consolidated and where critical deficits persist. Methods This descriptive secondary analysis of national aggregate time-series data from WHO GHO NTD indicators examined seven indicators for Nigeria, covering data points from 2005 to 2023 (with some indicators extending to 2024). Data were downloaded in CSV format, cleaned, and visualised using Microsoft Power BI Desktop. Seven visualisations captured reported treatment counts, treatment-need gaps, surveillance patterns, and cross-disease burden comparisons. No primary data collection was undertaken; ethical approval was not required. Results Onchocerciasis treatment coverage scaled from approximately 20.8 million individuals in 2005 to a peak of 44.4 million in 2014 before declining to 34.9 million by 2023, with a sharp pandemic-era contraction in 2020–2022. A persistent treatment gap between estimated need (47.5–56 million) and actual coverage was observed throughout the study period. Trachoma antibiotic treatment reached 9.3 million in 2019 but collapsed to 1.76 million by 2023. Buruli ulcer surveillance showed a marked, unconfirmed case surge that peaked sharply in 2019 before declining, a pattern most consistent with a surveillance artefact rather than a true incidence increase. Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) recorded zero cases from 2011 onward. Trichiasis surgical output remained in the range of approximately 8,100–8,200 operations annually across most years, with a pronounced single-year spike in 2019 and a partial extension of available data through 2024. Conclusion Nigeria has achieved notable gains in onchocerciasis treatment scale-up and sustained zero-reporting of HAT cases since 2011. However, persistent treatment coverage gaps, disruptions coinciding with the COVID-19 period, and surveillance fragility present serious risks to the attainment of WHO 2030 NTD elimination targets. Sustained investment in community health infrastructure, primary healthcare integration, and programme resilience is urgently required.