The Alignment Paradox: Human Capital and Economic Resilience in&nbsp;AfCFTA Africa

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socioeconomiceducation

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paper

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GraPre

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This conceptual paper develops a conditional, multi-theoretical framework examining how human capital development influences economic resilience in African developing economies integrating under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Drawing on empirical findings from the author's doctoral study in Tanzania (n=353, six sectors) and comparative evidence from Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Rwanda, the paper challenges the prevailing assumption that human capital accumulation automatically. The framework integrates multiple complementary theoretical perspectives to propose that human capital impacts resilience indirectly through labor market efficiency, with institutional quality acting as a moderating boundary condition. The paper introduces three novel theoretical contributions: the capability-deployment gap (the systematic failure of labor market institutions to convert educational capabilities into economic functionings) and the Labor Market Capability–Resilience Model (LMCRM), which repositions labor market alignment as the primary resilience determinant. Six theoretically derived propositions are advanced for empirical testing. The framework offers actionable recommendations for the African Union's Continental Education Strategy for Africa 2026–2035 and AfCFTA National Implementation Committees.

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<p><span>The Alignment Paradox: Human Capital and Economic Resilience in&nbsp;</span><span>AfCFTA Africa</span></p>

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