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<p>Mineral Abundance and Structural Drift in Madagascar: Evidence from Regional, National, and Cross-Country Analyses</p>

Domaine:

socioeconomic
Créateur:
RijRavFin
Éditeur:
Elsevier BV
Hôte:
Madagascar exemplifies the resource curse: despite abundant mineral endowments, the country exhibits weak industrial diversification, limited value added transformation, and pronounced regional disparities in human development. This study employs a three level empirical strategy combining regional HDI mapping, national OLS estimation of GDP determinants, and international panel analysis of manufacturing shares. Results indicate that resource rents suppress manufacturing globally, with Madagascar showing a potential but statistically unconfirmed amplification, linked to institutional fragility and dependence on primary exports. Mineral exports and foreign direct investment positively influence GDP, whereas total resource rents exert negative effects, confirming that governance mediates the developmental potential of resource wealth. Regional analysis reveals heterogeneous HDI gains, concentrated near major mining sites, underscoring uneven local benefits. Overall, mineral wealth constrains inclusive development yet can support growth when institutions strengthen and investment targets value-adding sectors. Policy implications emphasize industrial diversification, infrastructure development, and institutional reinforcement to convert mineral abundance into sustainable and equitable development.

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