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Machine Learning-Based Reconstruction of Missing Meteorological Observations Using Reanalysis and Satellite Data in West Africa

Domaine:

climateenvironment and energy

Type de record:

paper
Créateur:
MarBelAdeVal
Éditeur:
MDP
Hôte:
High-frequency meteorological observations from automatic weather stations (AWS) are frequently affected by substantial data gaps in data-sparse regions such as West Africa, limiting their usability for climate analysis and decision-making. This study presents a machine learning-based framework for reconstructing missing hourly observations by integrating in situ AWS measurements with ERA5-Land reanalysis fields and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite-derived products. The framework was applied to a network of over 50 AWS across 10 West African countries over the period 2017–2025, targeting seven meteorological variables: air temperature, relative humidity, global solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction. Gradient boosting models (XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost) were trained following a station-wise and variable-wise strategy, yielding over 300 variable-specific models. Detailed quantitative results are reported for four representative stations spanning distinct agro-climatic zones (Sahelian, Sudanian, coastal, and humid tropical). Air temperature and atmospheric pressure exhibit the highest reconstruction skill, with R2 values typically exceeding 0.90, while relative humidity and global solar radiation achieve R2 between 0.80 and 0.92. Precipitation and wind speed showed lower reconstruction skill than thermodynamic variables, reflecting their intermittency and sensitivity to local-scale processes. Wind direction, evaluated separately using circular statistics after recombination into degrees, exhibited the largest angular errors, highlighting the difficulty of reconstructing directional variability from large-scale predictors alone.

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