Malaria epidemiology in Djibouti (2019-2024) and predictive modeling for 2025 using computational approaches

This study aims to analyze the evolution of malaria cases between 2019 and 2024 and to model future forecasts in order to optimize public health interventions. The main objective was to understand epidemic trends, identify high-risk periods and provide accurate forecasts for 2025. The study used advanced computational approaches such as: time series analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and measures of central tendency to process monthly epidemiological data. The results revealed a significant variation in malaria cases over the years, with a peak of 51,094 cases in 2020. Djibouti City was the most affected region, recording more than 90% of cases, while other regions, such as Tadjourah, showed a slight increase in cases in 2024. The number of deaths decreased significantly, from 14 in 2022 to only one in 2024. Forecasts for 2025 indicate that the months of March to August will remain critical, with peaks expected, particularly in March (9,800 cases in Djibouti City). These results highlight the importance of strengthening prevention and treatment measures during the rainy season and implementing predictive surveillance systems for a more rapid and targeted health response.