Mapping IUU Fishing Risk in West Africa: A Crime Science Approach using AIS Disabling Data

Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing remains a major threat to marine ecosystems, food security, and local economies, particularly in West Africa, where such activity is especially widespread. While previous studies have largely focused on national or port-level factors, much less is known about where and why IUU fishing is likely to occur. This study examines the spatial distribution of potential IUU fishing activity in West Africa using AIS disabling data as a proxy. We employ random forest models informed by crime science to identify micro-spatial patterns and evaluate how spatial opportunity structures shape likely IUU behavior. In doing so, we assess two outcomes: (1) the proportion of AIS disabling hours relative to fishing effort, and (2) the total number of AIS disabling hours. The results show that all criminogenic risk factors, defined here as spatial opportunity structures such as commercially valuable fish, ports of convenience, and transshipment hubs, significantly predict AIS disabling, with proximity to high-value species and viable exit points emerging as particularly important.  Both models performed well, explaining over 40% of the variance. These findings highlight the crucial role of spatial opportunity structures in shaping IUU fishing behavior and point to practical strategies for targeted monitoring and enforcement. Overall, this study provides new insights into the micro-spatial dynamics of IUU fishing and underscores the value of integrating spatial data and criminological theory to inform policy.