Mapping the Spatial Distribution and Forecasting Future Trends of Urban Heat Island Intensity: Evidence from Gondar City, Ethiopia

Urban heat island is becoming the worries of the present world due to the excessive warming Cities experiencing. It is a phenomenon which is not area specific rather occurring in both the developed and developing countries Cities. It is, therefore, a familiar phenomenon to cities in Ethiopia too. However, it is not widely researched. The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variations and projections in the distribution of SUHII in Gondar City and its environs. Landsat 5, 7 and 8 data were taken from United States Geological Survey (USGS). This was analyzed using map algebra particularly (raster calculator and cell statistics). Conversions of DNV to Radiance and in turn Radiance to BT was made possible using map algebra. Other computations like NDVI, PV and Emissivity were made to get Land Surface Temperature (LST). Average LST was computed using Map Algebra (Cell Statistics). Linear regression and trend analysis was made using MSEXCELL. SUHII was computed using Zhou et al algorithm. Projections of SUHII was computed using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The result showed that the highest LST record was in 2020 and in spring. The computations of the 1990, 2000, 2013 and 2020 showed, there are differences across the decades and areas. The computed SUHII from 1990-2020 indicated that there was a rise and annual variability in SUHII. The projections made using ARIMA indicated that there will be a rise in SUHII in the years to come. Therefore, it can be concluded that there was an eminent difference in temperature record between the city and the surrounding rural areas, which tells the superiority of the temperature record of the city from the surrounding rural areas. Estimating this heat intensity is very vital for utility planning and thermal management.