Mathematical Modeling and Equilibrium Analysis of Early Life Stress Using a Modified SEIR Framework

International audience Early life stress (ELS) are adverse childhood exposures and exerts profound effects on brain development in children and mental health in later life. We formulated and solved a deterministic SEIR type model to describe the effects of ELS on child populations in urban areas in Kenya. The model involved environmental, genetic, neurobiological, and resilience factors with crucial dynamics and relapse. Equilibrium states were derived, and the local and global stability of the equilibriums were rigorously investigated by Mathematical analysis. The model identified significant patterns of progression of stress and provides a foundation for evaluating intervention approaches. Sensitivity of Stress Propagation Index R0 shows that resilience and environmental exposure are key determinants of the dynamics of mental health. The findings are of relevance to mental health professionals, public health policy makers, educational and social services, and the general public.