MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND SIMULATION OF EARLIER STAGES OF THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN MALI

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to predict the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mali. Official data on the number of confirmed cases over 30 days are used to calibrate the model to the Malian context. The positivity, the boundness, the existence and the uniqueness of the solution of the system of differential equations constituting the model have been proven. The basic reproduction number $\text{R}_0$ was calculated and its analysis against the parameters of the model was made. The numerical value of $\text{R}_0$ allowed us to calculate the final size of the epidemic in the absence of any intervention measures. The results of the numerical simulations showed that on the one hand, the peak of the epidemic can be reached on the 184th day with an average of 4 million infected if the barrier measures are not rigorously applied. But on the other hand, they support that the disease can be controlled by adherence to barrier measures, mass screening or a combination of both.