Measuring Vulnerability to Assess Households Resilience to Flood Risks in Karonga District, Malawi

Abstract Many parts of Malawi are prone to natural hazards with varying degrees of risk and vulnerability. This study aimed to quantify vulnerability of the households to flood risks in Karonga District in northern Malawi, specifically in Group Village Headman (GVH) Matani Mwakasangila of Traditional Authority Kilupula. The study used cross-sectional survey and data was collected using a structured questionnaire. This study applied Flood Vulnerability Index and statistical methods to quantify and analyse vulnerability of households in the aspect of exposure, susceptibility and resilience characteristics. Proportional Odds Model also known as Ordered Logistic Regression was used to identify factors that determine vulnerability of households to flood risks. The results show that households headed by females and elders of age (at least 61 years) were the most vulnerable to flood disasters. Households with houses built of mud, thatched and very old with no protective wall were more and most vulnerable to flood disaster in the area. The model also was used to model vulnerability in the respect of exposure, susceptibility and resilience of households to floods. The level of vulnerability was increasing with an increase in the number of households exposed and susceptible to floods. With an increase in resilience to flood disasters, vulnerability level was decreasing. Post analysis was also considered to have predictive margins of vulnerability levels among the villages in GVH Matani Mwakasangila. The likelihoods of vulnerability levels were not significantly different among the villages. However, villages with more exposed, susceptible and not resilience households were most vulnerable to floods in GVH Matani. Therefore, this study recommends that indigenous people and most vulnerable (women and elders) should be included in both Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) planning and implementation. Their representation should also play a major role, including leadership in national DRR arrangement as a way of increasing resilience to flood disasters.