Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in South Africa Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for System Reliability Assessment,

The evaluation of community health centre (CHC) systems in South Africa is crucial for assessing their reliability and effectiveness over time. A time-series analysis was employed using $ARIMA(p,d,q)$ model equations to forecast future trends in the number of patients visiting CHCs. The ARIMA(1,1,1) model showed a significant reduction in forecasting errors by up to 20% compared to previous models. The findings underscore the importance of using robust time-series forecasting methods for enhancing the reliability assessment of community health centre systems in South Africa. Integrate ARIMA forecasts into routine planning and resource allocation strategies within CHCs.