Methodological Evaluation of Off-Grid Community Systems in Uganda Using Difference-in-Differences for Yield Improvement Assessment

Ugandan communities are increasingly adopting off-grid solar-powered irrigation systems to enhance agricultural productivity. A difference-in-differences (DID) model was employed to analyse yield data from off-grid communities compared to control areas without such systems, accounting for temporal trends and omitted variable bias. The DID analysis revealed an average increase in crop yields of approximately 20% in the experimental regions following system installation. This study provides a validated methodological framework for assessing yield improvement from off-grid agricultural technologies, offering insights into potential policy interventions and technology adoption strategies. Future research should explore long-term impacts and compare different types of off-grid systems to optimise resource allocation. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.