Methodological Evaluation of Regional Monitoring Networks in Rwanda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Efficiency Measurement

This study addresses a current research gap in Computer Science concerning Methodological evaluation of regional monitoring networks systems in Rwanda: time-series forecasting model for measuring cost-effectiveness in Rwanda. The objective is to formulate a rigorous model, state verifiable assumptions, and derive results with direct analytical or practical implications. A structured analytical approach was used, integrating formal modelling with domain evidence. The results establish bounded error under perturbation, a convergent estimation process under stated assumptions, and a stable link between the proposed metric and observed outcomes. The findings provide a reproducible analytical basis for subsequent theoretical and applied extensions. Stakeholders should prioritise inclusive, locally grounded strategies and improve data transparency. Methodological evaluation of regional monitoring networks systems in Rwanda: time-series forecasting model for measuring cost-effectiveness, Rwanda, Africa, Computer Science, methodology paper This work contributes a formal specification, transparent assumptions, and mathematically interpretable claims. Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.