MODEL ANALYSIS FOR NIGERIA RICE PRICE FORECAST: AN IMPLICATION FOR FOOD SECURITY

This study highlights the specific and accurate methods for forecasting prices of local and imported rice in Nigeria based on data from January 2017 to February 2024. Different models that include autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Naïve, Holts, Mean and exponential smoothing were used to forecast the sample price data.. The result indicated that Holt is the best applicable model for imported rice while exponential smoothing is best applicable model for local rice. The study forecasted the prices of both local and imported rice for 26month using different models. The result showed varying prices for both local and imported rice for the various models used. None of the models used showed reduction in the prices of the two types of rice forecasted by 2026. This study recommended that production of local rice should be made consistent in Nigeria in order to ascertain its availability, also, addressing the underlying causes of price volatility and promoting sustainable agricultural development are essential for enhancing food security and improving the well-being of the populace.