Model projections and global goals calibration targets for 15–44 year-olds in Rwanda, 2004–2020.

Abbreviation: RPHIA = Rwanda Population-based Health Impact Assessment. The blue line and light blue shades represent the mean and range of the model projections, respectively, using the 50 best-fitting parameter sets. The points and the error bar represent the point estimates and 95% confidence interval of the calibration targets, with targets from RPHIA in red. (A) For the percentage on ART among diagnosed adults, 100% of model projections were a good fit to calibration targets. (B) For the percent virally suppressed among adults on ART, 94% of model projections were a good fit.