Modeling the COVID-19 spread, a case study of Egypt

Abstract In this article, the authors applied a logistic growth model explaining the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in Egypt. The model which is simple follows well-known premises in population dynamics. Our aim is to calculate an approximate estimate of the total number of infected persons during the course of the disease. The model predicted—to a high degree of correctness—the timing of the pandemic peak $$t_{{\text{m}}}$$ t m and the final epidemic size $$P$$ P ; the latter was foreseen by the model long before it was announced by the Egyptian authorities. The estimated values from the model were also found to match significantly with the nation reported data during the course of the disease. The period in which we applied the model was from the first of April 2020 until the beginning of October of the same year. By the time the manuscript was returned for revision, the second wave swept through Egypt and the authors felt obliged to renew their study. Finally, a comparison is made with the SIR model showing that ours is much simpler; yet leading to the same results.