Modeling the Public Health Impact of Sodium Reduction in Nigerian Bread: An Intake Assessment and Risk Reduction Simulation Analysis

Abstract • Background Excess dietary sodium is a key driver of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In Nigeria, commercially baked bread is a vital, universally consumed staple food. This paper evaluates the sodium content of popular bread brands in Lagos, Nigeria against global standards, analyzes the economic, trade, and technical implications of mandatory policy shifts, and simulates the age-stratified public health impact of regulatory reform. • Methods Sodium levels from 11 prominent Nigerian bread brand labels were benchmarked against the World Health Organization (WHO) global sodium benchmark for leavened bread (370 mg/100g) and the WHO Nutrient Profile Model (NPM) for marketing restrictions (250 mg/100g). A risk reduction simulation model was deployed using age-stratified consumption baselines—an adult daily baseline of 150g and a child daily baseline of 75g—to estimate population-level exposure shifts across two progressive regulatory scenarios. • Results The baseline mean sodium content across the analyzed brands was critically high at 597.91 mg/100g (range: 132.00–900.00 mg/100g), with 90.9% of brands violating both the global benchmark and child-centric NPM limits. At baseline, eating 150g of bread yields a daily adult sodium load of 896.86 mg (44.8% of the total daily limit recommended by the WHO), while a child consuming 75g experiences a daily load of 448.43 mg (37.4% of the pediatric limit). Under Scenario 1 (reformulation capping all brands at the 370 mg/100g benchmark), adult daily exposure dropped to 522.55 mg and child exposure to 261.27 mg (41.7% reduction). Scenario 2 (reformulation to the 250 mg/100g NPM limit) slashed daily exposure by 60.0% across both demographics (adults: 358.91 mg; children: 179.45 mg). • Conclusion Bread in Nigeria is a hidden, massive vector for dietary sodium across all age groups. Implementing mandatory absolute target thresholds—rather than arbitrary percentage reduction strategies like a 30% flat reduction—presents a highly effective, scalable structural mechanism to lower cardiovascular disease burdens. However, policies must carefully navigate industrial cost pressures and regional trade dynamics within West Africa to ensure long-term sustainability.