Modelling Microcystis Cell Density in a Mediterranean Shallow Lake of Northeast Algeria (Oubeira Lake), Using Evolutionary and Classic Programming

Caused by excess levels of nutrients and increased temperatures, freshwater cyanobacterial blooms have become a serious global issue. However, with the development of artificial intelligence and extreme learning machine methods, the forecasting of cyanobacteria blooms has become more feasible. We explored the use of multiple techniques, including both statistical [Multiple Regression Model (MLR) and Support Vector Machine (SVM)] and evolutionary [Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Bird Swarm Algorithm (BSA)], to approximate models for the prediction of Microcystis density. The data set was collected from Oubeira Lake, a natural shallow Mediterranean lake in the northeast of Algeria. From the correlation analysis of ten water variables monitored, six potential factors including temperature, ammonium, nitrate, and ortho-phosphate were selected. The performance indices showed; MLR and PSO provided the best results. PSO gave the best fitness but all techniques performed well. BSA had better fitness but was very slow across generations. PSO was faster than the other techniques and at generation 20 it passed BSA. GA passed BSA a little further, at generation 50. The major contributions of our work not only focus on the modelling process itself, but also take into consideration the main factors affecting Microcystis blooms, by incorporating them in all applied models.