Modelling of Alternative Pathways for Expansion of the Power Sector: Case Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone is committed to increase electricity generation to 1 GW to meet future demand by 2030. this study invested the challenges of electricity generation and what are the alternative technologies that would produce least cost electricity production. Using Osemosys optimisation tool, four scenarios were examined. The Business-as-Usual (BAU), Natural Gas Scenario (NGS), Electricity Imports (IMP) and Hydro (HYD). The investigations emphasised the current state of the power generation and the alternative technologies that would replace the Karpowership Production of power increased in all scenarios notably electricity imports from Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea and Ghana. Increase in production power from natural gas powerplants have reduced the electricity production from the Karpowership at the NGS scenario.  To meet the demand in 2050, Karpowership might reappear, but production might be in small amount. Additional capacities from natural gas and nuclear plants would totally phase out Karpowership in 2050. In the NGS Scenario electricity imports dominated the technology mix from 2020 until 2050. This could be attributed to the lack of knowledge of the investments requirement for electricity imports from Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea and Ghana. The HYD Scenario shows that Solar power plants account for the large production of electricity from 2040 to 2050. This is because, the hydro powerplants has reached their maximum limits of producing electricity. Future work should focus on intensive data review to ensure accuracy and relevance of the model (Plaza- Nino). Thorough knowledge of prices of electricity imports in the region is vital to ensure accurate representation of the imports to avoid excessive contribution of electricity imports in power generation. Performing Flexibility assessment will provide