Modelling the impact of seasonality and climate warming on mosquito population dynamics: insights for vector control strategies

Mosquito population dynamics are strongly shaped by temperature, rainfall, and seasonal environmental cues. Understanding these relationships is essential for anticipating vector responses to climate variability and long-term warming. This thesis integrates mechanistic modelling, stochastic climate processes, and reproducible data workflows to understand how climate influences mosquito abundance and seasonal activity across contrasting ecological settings. In Chapter 2, a temperature- and rainfall-driven stage-structured model was developed for Anopheles mosquitoes in four African regions. Simulations revealed that regional differences in temperature regimes and rainfall seasonality generate distinct abundance patterns and peak timings. The analysis demonstrated that incorporating seasonal climate variability is essential for accurately estimating mosquito abundance and identifying optimal intervention periods. Chapter 3 focused on a temperate system, constructing a detailed climate-driven model for Culex mosquitoes in Newfoundland and Labrador. The model incorporated temperature-dependent development and mortality, photoperiod-driven diapause, rainfall-dependent juvenile development, and stochastic rainfall sampling. Warming scenarios (+1°C to +5°C) produced nonlinear increases in abundance, extended the active season, and altered the timing of seasonal peaks, while stochastic rainfall drove additional year-to-year variability. Chapter 4 introduced climecol, an open-source R package providing a reproducible framework for importing, validating, and preparing climate data for ecological modelling. This tool standardizes workflows, ensures transparency in climate data processing, and supports both deterministic and stochastic climate inputs. Together, the chapters highlight the central role of seasonality in mosquito ecology, demonstrate nonlinear population responses to warming, and contribute a reproducible workflow for preparing climate data used in ecological modelling. The thesis advances both theoretical understanding and practical modelling capacity for predicting mosquito dynamics under current and future climate conditions.