Multispectral Vegetation Indices and Machine Learning Approaches for Durum Wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) Yield Prediction across Different Varieties

Durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) is one of the most widely cultivated cereal species in the Mediterranean basin, supporting pasta, bread and other typical food productions. Considering its importance for the nutrition of a large population and production of high economic value, its supply is of strategic significance. Therefore, an early and accurate crop yield estimation may be fundamental to planning the purchase, storage, and sale of this commodity on a large scale. Multispectral (MS) remote sensing (RS) of crops using unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs) is a powerful tool to assess crop status and productivity with a high spatial–temporal resolution and accuracy level. The object of this study was to monitor the behaviour of thirty different durum wheat varieties commonly cultivated in Italy, taking into account their spectral response to different vegetation indices (VIs) and assessing the reliability of this information to estimate their yields by Pearson’s correlation and different machine learning (ML) approaches. VIs allowed us to separate the tested wheat varieties into different groups, especially when surveyed in April. Pearson’s correlations between VIs and grain yield were good (R2 > 0.7) for a third of the varieties tested; the VIs that best correlated with grain yield were CVI, GNDVI, MTVI, MTVI2, NDRE, and SR RE. Implementing ML approaches with VIs data highlighted higher performance than Pearson’s correlations, with the best results observed by random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) models.