Logo Lanfrica
  • Accueil
  • Atlas
  • Analyses
  • Documentation
  • Sign in

© 2026 Lanfrica. Tous droits réservés. Tous les droits d'auteur des ressources affichées sur le site Web Lanfrica appartiennent aux détenteurs de droits d'auteur d'origine, sauf indication contraire explicite.

Observational Constraints Reduce Likelihood of Extreme Changes in Multidecadal Land Water Availability

Domaine:

climate

Type de record:

paper
Créateur:
PadGudSen
Éditeur:
ETH
Hôte:avatar
Future changes in multidecadal mean water availability, represented as the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, remain highly uncertain in ensemble simulations of climate models. Here we identify a physically meaningful relationship between present‐day mean precipitation and projected changes in water availability. This suggests that the uncertainty can be reduced by conditioning the ensemble on observed precipitation, which is achieved through a novel probabilistic approach that uses Approximate Bayesian Computation. Comparing the constrained with the full ensemble shows that projected extreme changes in water availability, denoted by the 5th and 95th percentile of the full ensemble, are less likely over 73% and 63% of land, respectively. There is also an overall shift toward wetter conditions over Europe, Southern Africa, and Western North America, whereas the opposite occurs over the Amazon. Finally, the constrained projections support adaptation to shifts in regional water availability as imposed by different global warming levels Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (2) ISSN:0094-8276 ISSN:1944-8007

Visit

doi.orghdl.handle.net

Licenses

Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 Internationalhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcodeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Similaires

Effect of landcover/land-use changes on water availability in and around Ruti Dam in Nyazvidzi catchment, ZimbabweLand use/Land cover Changes and Associated Impacts on Water Yield Availability and Variation, Mereb-Gash River Basin in Horn of AfricaLand use and land cover changes in Notwane watershed, Botswana, using extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) machine learning algorithmCurrent Conditions and Projected Changes in Crop Water Demand, Irrigation Requirement, and Water Availability over West AfricaImpact of Climate Change and Land Use Land Cover Change on the Water Availability in Blue Nile River basin, SudanAssessment of Land Suitability and Water Availability for Surface Irrigation in North Wollo Zones of Amhara Region.

Effect of landcover/land-use changes on water availability in and around Ruti Dam in Nyazvidzi catchment, Zimbabwe

The aim of this study was to quantify the upstream land-use and landcover changes and assess their e

Land use/Land cover Changes and Associated Impacts on Water Yield Availability and Variation, Mereb-Gash River Basin in Horn of Africa

<p>Climate variability, drought, and deforestation are increasing in the Horn of Afric

Land use and land cover changes in Notwane watershed, Botswana, using extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) machine learning algorithm

Current Conditions and Projected Changes in Crop Water Demand, Irrigation Requirement, and Water Availability over West Africa

Climate variability and change greatly affect agricultural and water resource management over West A

Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Land Cover Change on the Water Availability in Blue Nile River basin, Sudan

Climate change and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change have significant

Assessment of Land Suitability and Water Availability for Surface Irrigation in North Wollo Zones of Amhara Region.

Despite Ethiopia’s abundant land, water resources, and labor potential, only a small fraction of its