Path-Dependent Network Development in an Informal Settlement: A Space Syntax Study of Likoni, Mombasa

Informal urban settlements grow through incremental and adaptive processes, yet the temporal logic through which their access networks emerge, endure, and consolidate has received relatively little systematic attention. This paper examines the configurational development of the access network in Likoni, Mombasa, where rapid informal urbanisation has transformed an area containing only sparse footpaths into a dense urban network over two decades. Using historical satellite imagery, the study mapped five temporal states of access network for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026. The study utilises Space Syntax angular segment analysis. The analysis combines measures of angular connectivity, segment length, global and local integration, global and local choice, intelligibility, and synergy. The study aims to address three main questions: whether early informal footpaths persisted as the structural basis of later development of access network, whether subsequent growth strengthened local or global accessibility, and whether densification improved the overall configurational accessibility and legibility of the system as a whole. The results indicate that a finer-grained and more locally integrated network was produced through subdivision, densification, and the multiplication of short connecting segments. However, the gains were uneven across scales. Global integration and choice remained concentrated along a limited set of inherited and edge-related corridors, while local integration and local choice spread more widely through the settlement. The paper argues that the development of Likoni is a process of selective consolidation. Early footpaths became a persistent movement skeleton, forming the subsequent major paths of the later stages of the settlement. Later growth intensified local accessibility—albeit, as demonstrated through Space Syntax analysis rather than direct observation of movement—without necessarily producing notable improvements in global integration or whole-system configurational intelligibility. This finding adds a temporal and syntactic dimension to the understanding of informal morphogenesis.