
Phase-Based Modeling of Malaria Transmission with Climate Modulation in R
This software repository contains R code for modelling malaria incidence, severe malaria cases, and malaria-related mortality using climate-sensitive epidemiological approaches. The workflow integrates logistic epidemic growth models, exponential–quadratic severity functions, cumulative mortality modelling, change-point detection, phase segmentation, extinction threshold estimation, generalized additive models (GAMs), and negative binomial regression frameworks.
The software enables the identification of latent, accelerated, and delayed transmission phases and quantifies the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria dynamics within each phase. The pipeline also includes model performance evaluation, publication-quality visualizations, APA-compliant tables, and automated Microsoft Word report generation.
Main Features:
• Data preprocessing and cleaning
• Logistic modelling of cumulative malaria incidence
• Exponential–quadratic modelling of severe malaria cases
• Saturating mortality models for cumulative deaths
• Change-point detection and epidemic phase segmentation
• Climate-sensitive GAM and negative binomial modelling
• Extinction threshold estimation
• Model performance assessment (R², RMSE, MAE, AIC, BIC)
• APA-style figure and table generation
• Automated report generation in Microsoft Word
Programming Language:
R
Author:
Dr. Senyefia Bosson-Amedenu
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science
Takoradi Technical University, Ghana
ORCID: 0000-0002-9272-5521
Keywords:
Malaria, Epidemiology, Climate Change, Temperature, Rainfall, Generalized Additive Models, Time Series Analysis, Public Health, Disease Modelling, R Software.