Population connectivity across a transboundary conservation network: potential for restoration?

Abstract Context: There has been limited research identifying large-scale functional connectivity of wildlife populations across sub-Saharan Africa, despite the increased focus on transboundary conservation networks. Objectives: This study set out to assess the functional connectivity of a highly mobile predator of conservation concern across the Kavango-Zambezi transboundary conservation area (KAZA) and the northern Central Kalahari Game Reserve (CKGR), covering almost 300,000km 2 of Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Methods: We analysed the nuclear diversity of 204 individual lions from across the metapopulation using Bayesian and multivariate statistics to assess population structure and recent migration. A maximum-likelihood method was used to determine average male dispersal distances to determine the potential for functional connectivity across the region. Results: The results are consistent with work identifying the existence of ecotypic differences between wetland and dryland lions, but also indicate hierarchical population structure further dividing the population into four geographic clusters; the Okavango Delta, the Central Kalahari, Kafue National Park, and the Hwange-Chobe complex. Analysis of dispersal distances of males suggests that reconnecting the clusters through conservation intervention should be successful in improving gene flow and connectivity across the region. Conclusions: While trans-boundary conservation areas may currently have limited gene flow and connectivity, there is potential for the restoration of functional connectivity via the natural dispersal of highly mobile species. However, the matrix of habitat through which such dispersing animals must traverse must be conducive to their movement and survival, highlighting the importance of land outside protected areas for the preservation of highly mobile animals such as lions.