Potential Effects of Minimum Temperature Trend on Local Crop Production in Ijebu-Ode, Southwest Nigeria

Climate change presents a severe threat to agricultural productivity and rural stability in Nigeria, where the economy is heavily agrarian. This study specifically investigates minimum temperature trends in Ijebu-Ode from 1989 to 2018 to evaluate local environmental shifts, potential impacts on crop production, and the need for adaptation strategies. The study used data collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency Ijebu-Ode station and applied Innovation Trend Analysis (ITA) and the Anomaly approach to identify trends in annual minimum temperature and to detect anomalies, both of which are crucial for analysing hydrometeorological data. The results revealed a statistically significant, monotonic increase in minimum temperatures (warming trend) over 30 years, implying a consistent upward and uninterrupted trend where the majority of data points lie above the 1:1(450) diagonal line. Minimum temperatures have risen steadily since 1989, reaching their highest levels between 2004 and 2018, indicating a long-term structural shift in local climate. Heatwaves (positive anomalies) were identified from February to May and in November, while colder spells (negative anomalies) occurred during December-January and June-October (monthly anomaly). This pattern points to a substantial and sustained increase in minimum temperatures, which could be indicative of ongoing climate change impacts in Ijebu-Ode. The observed warming, especially during the dry season, poses a potential direct risk to crop yields. These temperature shifts will continue to disrupt traditional growing seasons and subject crops to chronic heat and moisture stress. To mitigate these effects, this underscores an urgent need for policymakers to design and implement planned adaptation strategies to reduce potential risk. Such measures are critical to enhancing the adaptive capacity and resilience of local inhabitants while safeguarding local crop production.