Powering a Greener Benin with Renewable Energy by 2050

Benin, like many Sub-Saharan African countries, faces persistent challenges in ensuring universal electricity access and advancing its energy transition despite ongoing projects and commitments under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). As of 2023, national electricity access stands at 57.0%, with 70.3% coverage in urban areas and only 43.7% in rural areas (World Bank Group, 2023). The energy sector accounts for 63.62% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, excluding the land use sector, highlighting its key role in climate mitigation efforts. This study uses the OSeMOSYS modeling framework to develop and analyze long-term energy planning scenarios for Benin through 2050. It compares two policy scenarios to a business-as-usual baseline. Scenario 1 aims to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions by 50% by 2050 through a cleaner, more diverse energy mix. Scenario 2 focuses on increasing renewable energy installed capacity by at least 25% by 2050. Although Scenario 1 requires slightly higher investment, only 0.06% more than Scenario 2, they result in comparable emissions reductions of around 70 million tons of CO₂. Future research should include updated data, sector-specific energy use analyses, and incorporate spatial modeling for improved regional planning.