Pre-Analysis Plan: Beyond Economic Gains: Understanding Utility Maximization in Migration Decision-Making

Migration flows from low- to high-income countries remain a central focus of policy and academic discourse, especially in the contexts of Africa and Latin America (e.g., Lücke et al., 2020). While a wide range of policies aim to influence these movements, most are based on simplified assumptions about migrant decision-making. Such assumptions often emphasize economic benefits, overlooking the complexity and diversity of migration drivers. This study seeks to answer the following key questions: (i) Do individuals adopt a uniform migration decision-making process, or do they exhibit variation in their objective functions when selecting a destination? (ii) What individual and contextual factors influence these objective functions? Specifically, how do factors such as gender, skill level, migration stage, and local context (e.g., migration narratives and social norms) shape the decision-making process? (iii) How do these factors interact to produce heterogeneity in migration decisions? We explore how individual characteristics, migration aspirations, and the broader social and economic context interact to create variation in migration preferences and outcomes. We employ online survey conjoint experiments conducted in five African countries: Senegal, Nigeria, Kenya, Morocco, and Tunisia. The target population comprises individuals aged 18 to 40. In our conjoint experiment, participants will be presented with hypothetical migration scenarios.