Predictive Modeling of Dietary Sugar Reductions and Fiscal Yields Under a Tiered Specific Tax Framework in Nigeria

Abstract Background The current percentage-based ( ad valorem ) sugar tax passed by the Nigerian Senate in June 2026 targets final retail shelf prices, failing to create a structural incentive for corporate recipe modification. This study models the public health and fiscal outcomes of shifting to a tiered, gram-based specific tax with a 4 g/100 ml tax-free threshold . Methods Using a mathematical simulation engine parametrized with a baseline national volume of 1 billion 50cl beverage units annually , we modeled changes from a baseline average sugar content of 8.3 g/100 ml . Drawing on empirical compliance data from the South African Health Promotion Levy, we applied a conservative 30% industry-wide recipe reformulation rate to project caloric reduction and annual state revenue yields. Results The implementation of a 4 g/100 ml threshold framework predicts an absolute drop in average sugar density from 8.3 g to 5.81 g per 100 ml , eliminating 12.45 million kilograms (12,450 metric tons) of pure sugar from the national food supply annually. If the beverage industry defaults to 0% compliance, the tax generates ₦107.5 billion annually. Under the realistic 30% recipe reformulation pathway, annual state revenue yields settle at ₦45.25 billion , accompanied by a massive reduction in metabolic disease risks. Conclusion A tiered, specific tax based on chemical composition—rather than product pricing—simultaneously drives aggressive industry-wide sugar reductions while generating predictable, long-term funding to support healthcare infrastructure.