Predictive Preparedness Breaks the Cycle of Recurrent Shocks in Somalia through Adaptive Governance

Abstract Recurrent climate and conflict shocks in Somalia perpetuate humanitarian crises and reactive responses, undermining long-term stability. Despite growing investments in early warning systems, the transition from prediction to proactive action remains weak. This study examines whether predictive preparedness breaks the cycle of recurrent shocks and whether adaptive governance mediates this relationship. A mixed-methods design was employed, combining quantitative data on shock events and response indicators in Somalia (2015–2025) with qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 34 policymakers from national ministries, regional authorities, and humanitarian agencies. Mediation analysis was conducted using structural equation modeling. Predictive preparedness significantly reduced the recurrence intensity of shocks (β = 0.61, p < 0.01). Adaptive governance explained 42% of this effect, with key mediators including flexible financing mechanisms, cross-sectoral coordination, and institutional learning loops. Qualitative findings highlighted that adaptive governance enabled timely release of anticipatory funds and improved trust among fragmented governance bodies. The study concludes that predictive preparedness breaks the cycle of recurrent shocks in Somalia primarily through adaptive governance rather than merely through better forecasts. Strengthening adaptive governance—especially institutional flexibility, cross-sectoral coordination, and institutional learning—is essential for shifting from crisis response to systematic resilience-building. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers, humanitarian actors, and development partners working in fragile and conflict-affected contexts.