Probabilistic Techno-Economic Assessment of DME Production from Natural Gas Under Price and Market Uncertainty

Abstract Probabilistic Techno-Economic Assessment of Dimethyl ether (DME) Production from Natural Gas under Price and Market uncertainty Dimethyl ether (DME) is a promising clean fuel for gas monetization, particularly in regions with abundant natural gas such as Nigeria. This study presents a dynamic, stochastic techno-economic evaluation of DME production via a reforming-based pathway (SMR–methanol–DME) modeled in Aspen HYSYS. Steady-state results indicate a small-scale production capacity of 12,690 ton/year, forming the basis for economic analysis. Under baseline conditions, deterministic evaluation yields a positive NPV of $8.82M, IRR of 41%, and payback period of 2.5 years, confirming economic viability. Dynamic simulation captures process variability, which is incorporated into a Monte Carlo framework to assess investment risk. Results show a high probability (80%) of positive NPV, but with notable downside risk due to sensitivity to DME price, energy consumption, and feedstock cost. Overall, the study demonstrates that while the process is economically attractive, its performance is strongly uncertainty-driven, highlighting the importance of risk-informed decision-making for small-scale gas monetization systems.