Profiling the Transitional Poor in Senegal: Determinants of Transition

Summary: The purpose of the study is to analyze the determining factors of the transitory poor, namely the characteristics of those who fall into poverty and the characteristics of those who emerge from poverty. To carry out this work, we determined the states of poverty during the transition 2005-2011 and 2011-2018 using the pseudo-panel methodology inspired by the work of Dang and Lanjouw (2013) using national survey data (ESPSI ,II, EHCVM). Then, we sought to detect the determining factors using a multinomial model. It appears in the results that 12% of poor households in 2011 remained in poverty in 2018 and that 31% of poor households emerged from poverty during the period considered. After estimating multinomial logit models, the analysis is oriented according to gender, level of education and area of residence which are determining factors of transitional poverty.