Prognostic Factors for Breast Cancer Recurrence in Tanzania: A Statistical Analysis

Background: Breast cancer arises from uncontrolled proliferation of breast cells and remains the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women globally. Its prognosis is particularly poor in Sub-Saharan Africa due to late-stage presentation and limited diagnostic resources. This article aims to study breast cancer prognosis in terms of cancer recurrence in Tanzania to reduce morbidity and mortality rates of breast cancer among Tanzanians. Methods: A multiple logistic regression model was fitted to predict the probability of breast cancer recurrence and classification of current and future breast cancer cases into either recurrence or non-recurrence groups using several prognostic factors. Model robustness was assessed using 3,000 bootstrap samples with classical, percentile-based, and bias-corrected and accelerated (BCA) 95% confidence intervals (C. Is). Results: ‘Tumor stage’ was most significant () prognostic factor. Patients diagnosed with late stages (III and IV) of tumors were significantly 6.56 times more likely to have a recurrence of breast cancer compared to those in early stages, I and II ( with 95% C. I= [3.933;10.941]). The prognostic model had about 74% probability to correctly classify ‘recurrence’ and ‘non-recurrence’ cases. Standard errors of the prognostic model were found close to ones from percentile and BCA approach. The 95% C. I for classical model and bootstrap methods did not differ much; implying that the prognostic model was plausible. Conclusion: Breast cancer tumor’ nicely predicted the probability of breast cancer recurrence and patients with late stages of tumor experience a poor prognosis.