PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT IN CRISIS SITUATIONS: DEVELOPING A RESILIENT APPROACH TO MITIGATE PROJECT FAILURES IN RWANDA

In light of the escalating frequency and severity of crises affecting project outcomes in Rwanda, this study investigates the urgent need for a resilient, context-specific approach to Project Risk Management (PRM). With over 37% of national projects having failed or faced severe delays between 2019 and 2023, the research is justified by the necessity to mitigate crisis-related disruptions that have cost Rwanda over RWF 20 billion. The objective was to examine the influence of risk identification, risk assessment, and crisis-specific mitigation strategies on project success. Using a descriptive research design based on secondary data from 200 development projects across five key sectors, the study applied t-tests, Pearson correlations, and multiple regression analysis. Findings revealed that structured risk identification halved project delays (mean delay = 15 vs. 30 days, p < 0.001), formal risk assessment reduced average cost overruns by 10% (p < 0.001), and crisis-specific mitigation increased the resilience index by 0.20 points (p < 0.001). The overall Pearson correlation coefficients were strong and significant: delay reduction and risk identification (r = -0.62), cost control and risk assessment (r = -0.58), and resilience and crisis mitigation (r = 0.64). Regression analysis showed these variables jointly explained 46% of project success variance (R² = 0.46). The study concludes that adaptive PRM practices significantly improve resilience, reduce financial losses, and ensure continuity. The implications suggest that institutionalizing proactive risk strategies, increasing PRM training, and customizing sector-specific frameworks can greatly enhance Rwanda's project sustainability under crisis conditions. It is recommended that policymakers enforce mandatory PRM protocols and prioritize digital risk tools to strengthen national development outcomes.