
Botswana’s agricultural sector is at the frontline of extreme climate variability. Characterized by semi-arid conditions, rainfed agriculture and livestock remain exceptionally fragile to rainfall anomalies and extreme temperatures. As regional climate dynamics point towards an upcoming El-Niño cycle (October 2026 - March 2027), understanding the broad agricultural impacts is imperative. This report provides a quantitative stress-test of Botswana’s agricultural economy under the anticipated climate shocks. It forecasts the cascading effects of extreme temperatures and rainfall contraction across cereal crop yields and livestock.