Psychosocial Predictors of Support for Political Violence in Kaduna State, Nigeria: A Cross-Context Conceptual Replication and Extension

This preregistration specifies the confirmatory and exploratory analysis plan for Study 2, a cross-sectional face-to-face field survey conducted in Kaduna State, Nigeria. The study examines whether victimhood-related psychological orientations predict support for political violence among Christian and Muslim respondents in an ethno-religious conflict context. The primary purpose is to test a focused conceptual replication of Study 1 from Plateau State: whether trait victimhood and competitive victimhood predict general support for political violence. Study 2 extends Study 1 by using a different conflict context, a religious intergroup cleavage, and a more differentiated set of support-for-violence outcomes. The primary outcome is general support for political violence; secondary outcomes are support for a violent religious-political organization and group-specific support for violence. Analyses are observational and cross-sectional; no causal effects will be claimed. The primary predictors and outcomes are grounded in prior social-psychological and conflict research on victimhood and support for violence. Trait victimhood is based on the tendency for interpersonal victimhood framework, which conceptualizes victimhood as a stable tendency to perceive oneself as wronged across situations. Competitive and collective victimhood are grounded in research on how perceived ingroup suffering and comparative victim beliefs shape intergroup relations. The political violence outcomes draw on survey-based research examining individual-level support for political violence and recent work linking perceived victimhood to support for political violence. Adelman, L., Leidner, B., Ünal, H., Nahhas, E., & Shnabel, N. (2016). A whole other story: Inclusive victimhood narratives reduce competitive victimhood and intergroup hostility. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 42(10), 1416–1430. doi.org Dyrstad, K., & Hillesund, S. (2020). Explaining support for political violence: Grievance and perceived opportunity. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 64(9), 1724–1753. Gabay, R., Hameiri, B., Rubel-Lifschitz, T., & Nadler, A. (2020). The tendency for interpersonal victimhood: The personality construct and its consequences. Personality and Individual Differences, 165, Article 110134. doi.org Hameiri, B., Moore-Berg, S. L., Guillard, C., Falk, E. B., & Bruneau, E. (2024). Perceived victimhood shapes support for interpartisan political violence in the United States. Psychology of Violence, 14(3), 207–217. doi.org Noor, M., Vollhardt, J. R., Mari, S., & Nadler, A. (2017). The social psychology of collective victimhood. European Journal of Social Psychology, 47(2), 121–134. doi.org