Refugee-Hosting and Electoral Response: Challenging the Generalizability of the Backlash Hypothesis

In higher-income democracies, increased refugee presence often triggers electoral backlash, but little is known about its political effects in low-income countries where most refugees reside. Theoretically, we discuss why findings from wealthy countries may not generalize and offer an alternative framework rooted in developing countries' contexts. We test our framework in Uganda, the largest refugee-hosting country in Africa. Combining data on refugee settlements with elections returns (2001-2021), we show that a substantial increase in refugee presence post-2014 did not result in a backlash against the incumbent government. Turning to elite rhetoric in parliament and partisan media, we find that as the salience of refugees increased, the incumbent party's tone became more positive, increasingly framing refugees in humanitarian and development terms. Thus, while, like other studies, we note the importance of elite rhetoric in migration politics, we highlight a case in which the incumbent's positive framing can help counter possible backlash.