Regional Heterogeneity in Debt-Governance Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of East, South and West Africa's Sustainable Development Pathways

This study examines the individual and joint effects of public debt and institutional quality on sustainable development across Sub-Saharan Africa, disaggregating the analysis into East, West, and Southern Africa. Employing panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations from 1996–2023, the research incorporates regional interaction terms and control variables such as inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and investment indicators. Results reveal that while public debt can promote development under favourable institutional conditions, its effectiveness varies significantly across regions. Strong institutions amplify debt’s developmental benefits, particularly in East and West Africa, whereas weak governance in Southern Africa diminishes these gains. Interaction models demonstrate that institutional quality mediates and conditions debt outcomes, while robustness checks using panel ARDL ECM models confirm cointegrating relationships and the long-run relevance of institutional capacity. The study underscores the importance of region-specific governance reforms in enhancing the productivity of public debt and achieving sustainable development. in the computation of SDI, the weight of 0.3 was attached to each of the variables, and for the weight of 0.2 was attached to the institutional quality variables. 40 countries Sub-Saharan Africa. None