Regional HIV Spatial Patterns Mapped Across Ghanaian District Boundaries: An Ecological Spatial Analysis

Reproducible analysis pipeline for a spatial epidemiological study of HIV prevalence and its socioeconomic determinants across all 261 of Ghana's census districts. Guan shares display geometry with Krachi East Municipal in the public GSS boundary file, but the analytical dataset retains 261 district records. Methods include Global Moran's I, Bivariate LISA, Getis-Ord Gi*, spatial lag and spatial error regression (specification chosen via Lagrange multiplier diagnostics), geographically weighted regression (GWR), LASSO, and Random Forest with SHAP interpretability. Top predictor: VCT uptake (|SHAP|=0.639); Global Moran's I=0.920 (KNN k=4, p=0.001). If you use this software, please cite it as below.