Replication archive for "Monetary–Fiscal Policy Effectiveness and Nigeria's Economic Growth: A Governance-Augmented Bayesian New Keynesian DSGE Model"

This archive provides the complete code, data, and intermediate output needed to reproduce every empirical result in Peter Sunday's 2025 PhD thesis at Manchester Metropolitan University, Monetary–Fiscal Policy Effectiveness and Nigeria's Economic Growth: A Governance-Augmented Bayesian New Keynesian DSGE Model. The model is a small open economy. The New Keynesian DSGE framework is augmented with two governance channels: a rent-seeking shock that diverts fiscal resources from productive use, and a governance-TFP shock that captures institutional disruptions to productivity. The model is estimated on annual Nigerian data for 1962–2023 using Bayesian methods (4 Markov chains × 500,000 draws each) on 9 observable series (output, inflation, nominal interest rate, government spending, tax revenue, real exchange rate, terms of trade, foreign output, and foreign inflation).

The archive contains the Dynare 6.5 model files for the main 9-observable specification and the 8-observable robustness specification; the Python script implementing the governance index backcasting procedure; the estimation data file; pre-computed posterior draws and Dynare output structures; MATLAB scripts for Chapter 6 welfare analysis, Ramsey optimal policy, and optimised simple rules; and full documentation, including a step-by-step replication walkthrough.

The complete pipeline runs in approximately 18–24 hours on a modern desktop (≥ 16 GB RAM, ≥ 8 cores). Software requirements: Dynare 6.5 with MATLAB R2025a and Python 3.10+ with NumPy, pandas, statsmodels, and matplotlib.