Replication Data and Code for: Ecological Stress and Economic Resilience: A Dynamic Framework of Transmission, Fiscal Capacity, and State Dependence.

This repository contains all data, code, and supplementary materials necessary to replicate the results reported in the manuscript: "Ecological Stress and Economic Resilience: A Dynamic Framework of Transmission, Fiscal Capacity, and State Dependence" (under review for Ecological Economics). The paper develops a microfounded ecological-economic framework linking ecological stress to productivity, prices, investment, and capital flows, with empirical analysis using structural VAR, cointegration, and Markov-switching autoregressive models for four MENA economies (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia). Key findings: Ecological stress propagates through multiple macroeconomic channels, with intensity varying across economic systems. Foreign direct investment emerges as a recurrent and responsive transmission channel across heterogeneous economies. Egypt exhibits 2.5× regime-dependent amplification of ecological disturbances under volatile macroeconomic conditions. Fiscal capacity conditions the translation of institutional capability into effective resilience. Repository contents: Full_Panel_Data.csv — Processed panel dataset (1980–2023) Main_figures_code.py — Generates Figures 1–6 SM_Figures_code.py — Generates SM Figures A1–A3, F1–F3, G.1 Generate_Tables.py — Generates all results tables Online_Supplementary_Material.pdf — Full SM with Appendices A–H README.md — Detailed replication instructions requirements.txt — Python dependencies LICENSE — MIT License Requirements: Python 3.8+ with pandas, numpy, matplotlib, tabulate, statsmodels, scipy. Raw data sources: CRU TS v4.0 (Harris et al., 2020), SPEI Global Database (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), World Bank WDI, V-Dem Project v13 (Coppedge et al., 2023), World Bank WGI (Kaufmann et al., 2010). License: MIT