Replication Data for: How Do Economic and Geospatial Factors Shape Conflict? A Bayesian Spatial Risk Approach to Nigeria

The importance of economic and geospatial drivers on the dynamics of conflict is well-documented, but often subnational drivers in broader aggregate analysis are ignored. By combining spatial econometrics with the greed-grievance framework, we provide a spatial risk analysis methodology within fragile states. To fill this gap, a Bayesian spatial methodology is used to investigate linkages between developmental variables, natural resource endowments and conflict types in Nigeria between 1997 and 2023. Leveraging Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) along with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE), the analysis includes 14 variables in four types of conflicts. Predictive validation suggests that although wealth reliably acts as a protective factor, the effects of ethnic fractionalization and resource proximity vary greatly by actor. While the former raises the risk of joining an organized militia, the latter lowers the risk of rioters. These findings illustrate the fact that resource driven greed and socio-economic grievances lead to the formation of distinct spatial clusters and therefore require actor specific policy interventions. The resultant high-resolution conflict risk maps thus serve to inform targeted investments, development initiatives and operational planning as well as working towards achieving long-term stability through strategic interventions and community engagement.