Replication Package for "State Capacity, Informality, and Monetary Transmission: Institutional Fragmentation and Trust-Dependent Hysteresis in Tunisia"

Replication Package for "State Capacity, Informality, and Monetary Transmission: Institutional Fragmentation and Trust-Dependent Hysteresis in Tunisia"

Forthcoming in the Journal of Institutional Economics

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PURPOSE

This replication package provides all code, data, and documentation required to:

- Reproduce all empirical results reported in the paper
- Replicate all figures (main text and appendix) at 600 DPI
- Replicate all tables (main text and appendix)
- Run the DSGE simulations
- Verify the Granger-causality tests
- Re-estimate the modified Taylor rule

The package is designed for full reproducibility and transparency.

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PACKAGE CONTENTS

Data/tunisia_data.csv - Main empirical dataset (2001-2024, annual)
Data/monthly_data.csv - Monthly data for Granger-causality (2001-2024)
Data/data_sources.md - Description of all data sources

Code/generate_figures.py - Figure generation script (Figures 1-7, A.1-A.2)
Code/generate_tables.py - Table generation script (Tables 1-7, A.1-A.4, B.1)
Code/empirical_estimation.py - OLS and multivariate regressions
Code/granger_causality.py - Granger-causality tests (Table 7)
Code/taylor_rule_estimation.py - Modified Taylor rule (Appendix B)
Code/dsge_model.mod - Dynare model file (Appendix C)
Code/simulation.py - Simulation code for Section 7
Code/utils.py - Helper functions

Requirements/requirements.txt - Python dependencies
Requirements/environment.yml - Conda environment (alternative)

Documentation/reproduction_guide.md - Step-by-step reproduction instructions
Documentation/version_history.md - Version tracking

Figures/ - Generated figures (PNG + PDF, 600 DPI)
Tables/ - Generated tables (PNG + PDF, 600 DPI)
Results/ - Estimation outputs (CSV format)

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WHAT CAN BE REPRODUCED

Paper Element - File to Run - Output

Figure 1 (Trust-dependent hysteresis) - python simulation.py - Figure_1.png/pdf
Figure 2 (Nonlinear S-curve) - python simulation.py - Figure_2.png/pdf
Figure 3 (Defensive reaction) - python generate_figures.py - Figure_3.png/pdf
Figure 4 (Recursive chain) - python simulation.py - Figure_4.png/pdf
Figure 5 (Transition) - python generate_figures.py - Figure_5.png/pdf
Figure 6 (Counterfactual IT) - python simulation.py - Figure_6.png/pdf
Figure 7 (Empirical policy) - python generate_figures.py - Figure_7.png/pdf
Tables 1-7 - python generate_tables.py - Table_1.png/pdf ... Table_7.png/pdf
Tables A.1-A.4, B.1 - python generate_tables.py - Table_A1.png/pdf ... Table_B1.png/pdf
Regime elasticities (Table 4) - python empirical_estimation.py - Console + CSV
Granger-causality (Table 7) - python granger_causality.py - Console + CSV
DSGE simulations - dynare dsge_model.mod - IRF graphs + MAT files

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REQUIREMENTS

Software:

- Python 3.9 or higher (required for all empirical work)
- Dynare 4.6 or higher (required for DSGE simulations only)

Python Packages (exact versions for reproducibility):

numpy==1.24.3
pandas==2.0.3
scipy==1.10.1
statsmodels==0.14.0
matplotlib==3.7.2
seaborn==0.12.2

System Requirements:

- RAM: 4 GB minimum
- Disk space: 500 MB
- OS: Windows, macOS, or Linux

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REPRODUCTION STEPS

Step 1: Setup Environment

unzip SM_Tunisia_Monetary_Hysteresis.zip
cd SM_Tunisia_Monetary_Hysteresis
python -m venv replication_env
source replication_env/bin/activate (Linux/macOS) or replication_env\Scripts\activate (Windows)
pip install -r Requirements/requirements.txt

Step 2: Reproduce Figures

cd Code
python generate_figures.py

Expected output: 18 files in Figures/ (PNG + PDF for 9 figures)

Step 3: Reproduce Tables

python generate_tables.py

Expected output: 24 files in Tables/ (PNG + PDF for 12 tables)

Step 4: Reproduce Empirical Estimations

python empirical_estimation.py

Expected output: Console logs + Results/regression_results.csv

Step 5: Reproduce Granger-Causality Tests

python granger_causality.py

Expected output: Console logs + Results/granger_results.csv

Step 6: Run DSGE Simulations (Optional)

dynare dsge_model.mod

Expected output: IRF graphs + Results/dsge_output.mat

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VERIFICATION CHECKLIST

After running all scripts, verify:

- Figure 1 persistent level: approximately 4.3% (Figure_1.png)
- Table 4 post-2020 elasticity: -0.80 (Table_4.png)
- Table 7 FX pressure to policy rate p-value: less than 0.01 (Table_7.png)
- Figure 3: Visual co-movement between FX pressure and policy rate

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EXPECTED RUNTIME

Figure generation: 30 seconds
Table generation: 15 seconds
Empirical estimations: 5 seconds
Granger-causality: 10 seconds
DSGE simulations: 2 minutes
Total: approximately 3 minutes

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TROUBLESHOOTING

ModuleNotFoundError: Run pip install -r Requirements/requirements.txt
Dynare not found: Install Dynare from dynare.org
Font warnings: Install Times New Roman or ignore (matplotlib will substitute)
Different numerical results: Minor differences expected; main results should be consistent

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LICENSE

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

You are free to share and adapt this material for any purpose, with appropriate attribution to the original paper.

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CITATION

When using this replication package, please cite:

Author Names. (2026). Replication Package for "State Capacity, Informality, and Monetary Transmission: Institutional Fragmentation and Trust-Dependent Hysteresis in Tunisia" (Version 1.0). Zenodo. doi.org

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CONTACT

For questions, issues, or bug reports, please contact the corresponding author through the journal editorial office.

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VERSION

Version: 1.0
Date: June 2026
Status: Initial submission version (anonymous for review)