Revealing Cropland Abandonment and Food Insecurity in War-ravaged South Sudan

Abstract Armed conflicts often result in cropland abandonment with significant impacts on food security. Moreover, conflicts restrict the collection of on-the-ground information required for organizing targeted relief distribution. Satellite remote sensing provides a way of observationally gathering information about disruptions during armed conflicts and food-security status in conflict zones. Using ~7500 multisource satellite images, we implemented a data-driven approach that showed a reduction in cultivated croplands in war-ravaged South Sudan by 23% from 2016 to 2018. Propensity score matching revealed a close relationship between cropland abandonment and armed conflicts that lead to drastic decreases in the available food supply. If war-induced abandonment had not occurred, our analysis shows that the abandoned croplands could have supported at least a quarter of the population in the southern states of South Sudan. Here, we demonstrate that remote-sensing technology can play a crucial role in rapid assessments of cropland abandonment in food-insecure regions, thus improving the basis for timely aid provision.