Risk stratification and prognostic value of basic coagulation parameters among COVID-19 patients

Background: COVID-19 is a viral disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus. Currently, prognosis and risk stratification of COVID-19 patients is done by the disease's clinical presentation. Therefore, identifying laboratory biomarkers for disease prognosis and risk stratification of COVID-19 patients is critical for prompt treatment. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to assess the risk stratification and prognostic value of basic coagulation parameters and factors associated with disease severity among COVID-19 patients, Northwest Ethiopia. Methods: A follow-up study was conducted among conveniently recruited COVID-19 patients attended from March to June 2021. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected using a structured questionnaire and checklist, respectively. Prothrombin time (PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) were analyzed by the HUMACLOT DUE PLUS® machine. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of study participants. Kruskal Wallis tests were used to compare the difference between parametric and non-parametric continuous variables, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the value of PT and APTT in the risk stratification and disease prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Ordinal logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with disease severity and prognosis. A P-value < 0.05 was defined as statistically significant for all results. Result: Baseline PT at a cut-off value ≥ 16.25 seconds differentiated severe COVID-19 patients from mild and moderate patients (AUC: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83–0.95). PT also differentiated mild COVID-19 patients from moderate and severe patients at a cut-off value ≤ 15.35 seconds (AUC: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.84–0.96). Moreover, alcohol drinkers were 3.52 times more likely chance of having severe disease than non-drinkers (95% CI: 1.41–8.81). A one-year increment in age also increased the odds of disease severity by 6% (95% CI: 3–9%). An increment of ≥ 0.65 seconds from the baseline PT predicted poor prognosis (AUC: 0.93, 0.87–0.99).   Conclusions and recommendations: Prolonged baseline PT was observed in severe COVID-19 patients. Prolonged baseline PT was also predicted to worsen prognosis. An increase from the baseline PT was associated with worsen prognosis. Therefore, PT can be used as a risk stratification and prognostic marker in COVID-19 patients.