Safeguarding Lives, Livelihoods, and Infrastructure through Enhanced Flood Early Warning

This policy brief has two primary objectives: firstly, to share the CONFER project's findings with pertinent stakeholders and potential users through disseminating results and ensuring accessibility to developed tools. Secondly, to offer scientific recommendations directly to policymakers. The newly established system (part of WP2 hydrological modeling) seamlessly predicts weather and hydrological hazards. This provides essential lead time so communities and stakeholders can assess flood risks and take precautions, saving lives and minimizing economic losses. It was developed through user engagement and collaboration between weather and water scientists, humanitarian organizations, and government agencies, considering a regional approach, which is essential in addressing flood hazard given the nature of transboundary river networks over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The model, now operational at ICPAC and available to all met agencies in the GHA through centralized computing infrastructure, underwent rigorous testing in Tana and Nzoia basins, both in Kenya, after which it was upscaled to the GHA region. The work package aims to deliver modelling solutions for improved downstream climate service for the Horn of Africa. both the accuracy and utilization of rainfall and streamflow forecasts for reducing impacts of climate extremes and enhancing resilience in GHA. It offers recommendations to national weather services, highway authorities, dam managers, hydro- power companies, local communities, researchers, policy makers, and donors, on prioritizing generation of high quality of early warning information, and empowering stakeholders to take necessary early actions.