SAR-Based Flood Detection and Agricultural Land Cover Vulnerability in the Loukkos Floodplain: Implications for Land Use Management in Larache Province, Morocco

Flood events in agricultural floodplains reflect not only the intensity of rainfall but the vulnerability of the land surface at the moment of the event. This study examines the January–February 2026 flood in Larache Province, Morocco, through an integrated remote sensing workflow combining Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, CHIRPS precipitation data, and Dynamic World land cover within Google Earth Engine, processed via the rgee R package. Flood extent was mapped using SAR backscatter change detection and validated against rainfall dynamics. Land cover conditions were assessed across four temporal windows — spring 2025, pre-event, post-event, and spring 2026 — to evaluate how the landscape entered the event and how it recovered. Results show that a significant share of normally cultivated land was in a bare soil state before the flood, increasing runoff generation and susceptibility to inundation. Post-flood analysis across 25 sample areas documents spatially uneven recovery, with cropland coverage still below seasonal norms in spring 2026. These patterns reflect structural land use conditions — wetland loss, intensive seasonal agriculture, drought-degraded soils — that amplified the impact of an already severe event. The findings have direct implications for land use management: cover cropping practices, updated flood hazard zoning, and targeted wetland restoration could meaningfully reduce vulnerability in the Loukkos floodplain and in comparable alluvial agricultural systems across the region.