Scenario Study for Green Hydrogen in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract Given the urgent need to transition to sustainable energy sources to address both environmental and socio-economic challenges, green hydrogen has emerged as a compelling option and a potential solution. This paper presents a scenario study for the development and integration of green hydrogen in decentralized energy systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a focus on Ghana. The research employs the scenario technique to explore the plausibility and feasibility of green hydrogen development in Ghana until 2035. In order to achieve this objective, 61 potential influencing factors were initially identified, and 20 key factors were subsequently selected. A total of 75 projections for the key factors were then developed, and three distinctive scenarios were created. The three scenarios, designated as “Corporate Dominance”, “Decentralized Energy Supply”, and “Lost Electrification”, provide insights into potential future developments and their implications for energy policy, economic growth, and technological innovation. The study highlights the critical role of policy frameworks, technological advancements, educational programs, and economic incentives in shaping the future of energy systems. The findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers, businesses, and organizations to foster a sustainable and equitable energy future in Sub-Saharan Africa.